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Name: Petr Sunega

Institution/Company: Institute of Sociology, Academy of Sciences of the CR

Position: researcher

Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

Econometric models have produced contradictory results and have failed to provide warning of housing market crashes. The article should illustrate the inability of econometrics to reliably predict the last house price bubble and detect the disequilibrium in the housing markets. The authors will demonstrate on particular situation that two distinct but well specified econometric models can lead to different outcomes. The authors argue that the demand for housing is influenced by social constructs, social norms, ideologies, unrealistic expectations, symbolic patterns, and the actual choice of housing is the outcome of complex social interactions with reference groups. Consequently, it is necessary to analyse the potential instability of social constructs, norms, expectations and the changing character of social interactions to better understand purchasing behaviour and, then, house price volatility.

26.6.2014 | Petr Sunega, Martin Lux, Petr Zemčík | Volume: 1 | Issue: 2 | Pages: 70-78 | 10.13060/23362839.2013.1.2.117

Subjective or objective? What matters?

The aim of the paper is to discuss selected methodological problems of quantitative comparative housing research. The analysis is based on EU-SILC data and the concept of overcrowding is considered. We used two alternative definitions of overcrowding rate, both based on normative assumptions and each giving slightly different results. We tried to answer the question, which definition is better. The basic idea was that the closer the ‘objective’ rate of overcrowding is to its ‘subjective’ assessment, the better the selected method (definition) is. Moreover, it was shown that while in more advanced countries the share of households that consider dwelling space to be a problem is significantly higher than the share of households living in overcrowded dwellings based on ‘objective’ criteria, in post-socialist countries the opposite is true.

26.1.2014 | Petr Sunega | Volume: 1 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 35-43 | 10.13060/23362839.2014.1.1.28
Copyright 2013 Critical Housing Analysis
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