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Normalisation of the Speculative Frame Method and Its Application to the Housing Market in Poland

This article proposes the normalisation of the speculative frame method for identifying real estate bubbles, price shocks, and other disturbances in the real estate market. This index-based method relies on time series data and real estate prices. In this article, the speculative frame method was elaborated and normalised with the use of equations for normalising data sets and research methodologies. The method is discussed on the example of the Polish housing market.

22.3.2021 | Justyna Brzezicka, Radosław Wiśniewski | Volume: 8 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 36-46 | 10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.521

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Private Rental Housing Market in Poland: What Do Experts Say and What Do Actual Data Show?

The aim of the article is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level of housing rents using the example of the City of Krakow. This study is based on objective data on rental prices and subjective information obtained from real estate agents using a questionnaire survey. The research revealed that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic actually led to a 6-7% decrease in prices in the rental market in Krakow, while at the same time the surveyed real estate agents had estimated that rents would drop by about 13%. With the second wave of the pandemic, it is possible to see that its immediate impact, i.e. between the third and fourth quarter of 2020, has led to a further 6.25% drop in rents. It should be noted that the latter decrease was very accurately predicted, both by the survey respondents and by the econometric models used. Finally, the results of the analysis also indicated that the worsening of the pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 will have a significant impact on rent levels in Krakow for all of next year. Regardless of how the economy develops, rental prices are forecast to fall further in 2021q1. However, in the subsequent quarters of 2021, rents are projected to increase, but ultimately their level will not return to pre-pandemic values even in 2021q4. The latter is likely to happen only in the second half of 2022.

18.3.2021 | Mateusz Tomal, Bartłomiej Marona | Volume: 8 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 24-35 | 10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520

Welfare State and the Gender Dissimilarity Index in Homelessness. A Comparison of Norway, Belgium and Poland

This article investigates the structural underpinnings of gender dissimilarities in homelessness from a comparative perspective. The Gender Dissimilarity Index is introduced as a simple measure for quantifying the unevenness of the distribution of men and women across the ETHOS-light categories. Three gendered aspects of the welfare state are considered and compared for Norway, Belgium, and Poland: employment and childcare, housing, and homelessness policies. Based on available data, it appears that the most uneven distribution of genders may indicate a combination of the promotion of the male breadwinner model and relatively broad support for people who are homeless, but also the shortage of affordable housing. A more gender-balanced homeless population may be the result of a combination of housing-led approaches and degenderising policies. However, a similar distribution may be attributed to states with implicitly genderising policies coupled with ‘traditional’ attitudes towards gender roles and a lack of adequate responses to women’s needs.

17.3.2021 | Magdalena Mostowska | Volume: 8 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 11-23 | 10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.519

Interpretation and Representation in Housing Policy Discourse as Exemplified by Council Tenants’ Participation in the Jazdów Estate (Warsaw)

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of the What’s the Problem Represented to Be approach (WPR), a tool of policy analysis developed by the Australian political scientist Carol Bacchi to examine the discursive representations of council tenants’ participation in connection with the inclusion of council housing tenants from the Jazdów Estate in the decision-making process relating to local housing policy in Warsaw. The article identifies two discursive representations of council tenants’ participation: (1) council tenants as an expected passive audience in top-down policymaking and (2) the limited acceptance of the agency of council tenants in policymaking. It was found that in Warsaw - or at least in the case of Jazdów - the political and discursive interpretation of tenants’ participation is primarily associated with the act of informing and less often with public consultation or the co-production of housing policy.

16.3.2021 | Aleksandra Zubrzycka-Czarnecka | Volume: 8 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 1-10 | 10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.518
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