The Role of Housing Costs in Central Banks’ Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Cases of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England

Since the 1990s it has become common for central banks to be charged with using interest rates to meet consumer price inflation (CPI) targets. This article examines the cases of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of England (BoE) and finds that whereas the RBA’s CPI target includes a housing cost element, the BoE’s does not. Moreover, it finds that contrasting treatments of housing costs produce different results, depending on whether the index includes mortgage interest as a housing cost. Whilst central banks dislike CPIs that include an element of mortgage interest because of the apparently perverse outcome of increasing interest rates, they also lack credibility by excluding such an important element of the cost of living. Credibility demands that the 30-year consensus on inflation targeting by monetary policy be replaced by a broader set of tools – including fiscal policy – to control inflation.

303 views

References

ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) 2021. Frequently asked questions (FAQs) about the measurement of housing in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Selected Living Cost Indexes (SLCIUs).  Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/frequently-asked-questions-faqs-about-measurement-housing-consumer-price-index-cpi-and-selected-living-cost-indexes-slcis

Australian Government 2023. An RBA fit for the future. Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://rbareview.gov.au/sites/rbareview.gov.au/files/2023-06/rbareview-report-at_0.pdf

Dougherty, A., R. van Order 1982. ‘Inflation, Housing Costs and the Consumer Price Index.’ The American Economic Review 72 (1): 154-164. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1808582

EMF (European Mortgage Federation) 2022. Hypostat 2022. European Mortgage Federation. Retrieved June 23, 2023, from https://hypo.org/app/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/HYPOSTAT-2022-FOR-DISTRIBUTION.pdf

Financial Times (FT) 2023. ‘Rishi Sunak’s future looks tied to Bank of England success on inflation.’ Financial Times (June 22, 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ft.com/content/ed53ac18-c399-4066-a2f7-5c60f0ffead9

Guardian 2023. ‘Central bank going “rogue” – Senator claims.’ The Guardian (June 6, 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/jun/06/australia-news-live-reserve-bank-rba-interest-rates-decision-kathleen-folbigg-lawyers?page=with:block-647eb1648f0800788faca06f

Hanmer, F., M. Marquardt 2023. ‘New insights into the rental market.’ Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin (June 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/jun/pdf/new-insights-into-the-rental-market.pdf

Hill, R. J., M. Steurer, S.R. Walt 2023. ‘Owner-occupied Housing, Inflation, and Monetary Policy.’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (in press). First published online 13 May 2023. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13059

House of Lords Economic Affairs Select Committee 2019. Measuring Inflation. Fifth Report of Session 2017-19, HL Paper 246. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeconaf/246/24602.htm

International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Labour Organisation, Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and The World Bank 2020. Consumer Price Index Manual. Concepts and Measures. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/ -dgreports/ -stat/documents/publication/wcms_761444.pdf

Lowe, P. 2021. ‘Statement by Philip Lowe. Monetary Policy Decision.’ RBA, Media Releases (February 2, 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01.html

Mulkearn, K. 2022. Which inflation measure: CPI, CPIH or RPI? Incomes Data Research. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.incomesdataresearch.co.uk/resources/news/which-inflation-measure-cpi-cpih-or-rpi

ONS (Office for National Statistics) 2016. CPIH Compendium. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/cpihcompendium/2016-10-13

ONS 2017. Consumer Price Inflation (20 December 2017). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/consumerpriceinflationincludesall3indicescpihcpiandrpiqmi#important-points-about-consumer-price-inflation

ONS 2018. Index of Private Rental Housing Prices QMI [Quality and Methodology Information]. Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/methodologies/indexofprivatehousingrentalpricesqmi

ONS 2023a. Index of Private Rental Housing Prices, UK (April 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/april2023#strengths-and-limitations

ONS 2023b. Consumer Price Inflation Tables (23 May 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/consumerpriceinflation

Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) 2023. Not the only wrong call on interest rates: PM lashes RBA.’ The Sydney Morning Herald (June 9, 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-the-only-wrong-call-on-interest-rates-pm-lashes-rba-20230609-p5dfcl.html

Wolf, M. 2021. ‘What central banks ought to target.’ Financial Times (March 3, 2023). Retrieved July 10, 2023, from https://www.ft.com/content/160db526-5e8d-4152-b711-21501a7fbd01

Please, login first to add a comment.
Document Type
article
ISSN
2336-2839
Volume / Issue
10 / 2
Pages
15-28
Date of publication
26.11.2023

Cite this article

copy
Stephens, M. 2023. ‘The Role of Housing Costs in Central Banks’ Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Cases of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England.’ Critical Housing Analysis 10 (2): 15-28. https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2023.10.2.556